When the Winner of the US-Iran War is… Russia - 3/16/26

Unless there is an “unconditional surrender” of the type that Donald Trump is no longer publicly discussing, it is often deceptively difficult to identify winners and losers at the end of a war. If the United States decimates Iran’s conventional military capacity and greatly diminishes its nuclear potential, will that indicate an American victory? If the current Iranian regime remains in place and continues to interfere with international commerce and shipping, does that constitute a triumph for that country’s leaders?

The honest answer is that we don’t know, and absent a more clear-cut conclusion than currently appears to be likely, the question will be debated in both countries and in global diplomatic circles for years to come. Regardless of the specifics, both Trump and the then-serving Ayatollah will grandiosely claim victory, but the actual outcome will be measured in the level of future terrorist activity, oil prices, altered diplomatic relationships, and countless other unpredictable and unmeasurable variables.

But one clear winner has already emerged from this war—Russia. The global focus on Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine has been diverted by violence or threats in Gaza, Venezuela, Cuba, Greenland, and now Iran. Any pressure that might have existed for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has now disappeared; Ukraine’s recent battlefield gains are now under threat as the American military shifts defensive weapons to the Middle East, and Europe’s military capacity has been further strained by the need to help its regional allies defend themselves against Iranian attacks.

The Iran war’s economic benefits for Russia are even greater. Putin has struggled to sell his country’s oil on the world markets, which has created economic havoc within Russia and made it increasingly difficult to fund the war effort. But Iran’s ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz caused global oil prices to skyrocket, creating immense financial benefits for Putin and his military. When Trump announced late last week that he intended to lift trade sanctions against Russia in order to increase the availability of oil for international consumers, Putin’s windfall grew even more. European allies such as German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz warned that such a gift would cause immeasurable damage to the Ukrainian war effort and prospects for peace, but to no avail.

It also appears that China might reap some benefit from the Iran conflict. While Iran provides the Chinese with a significant portion of the oil required to satisfy the country’s ravenous energy needs, there is evidence that President Xi Jinping has been preparing for this type of disruption for some time by developing their supplies of alternative energy sources and investing massively in their domestic coal mining capacity.

But the most important potential benefit for Xi is that the current war has once again diverted the US’ long-promised “pivot to Asia.” When the USS Abraham Lincoln left the South China Sea for the Persian Gulf earlier this year, the move symbolized a corresponding shift of American and international attention away from the challenges that China presents on the Pacific Rim and beyond. But it also represented a more tangible change, as there are growing concerns that the US military is rapidly depleting its weaponry capacity in the Middle East, creating potential vulnerabilities should an armed conflict with China emerge in the future.

It’s also impossible to predict the damage that the Iran war has done to America’s diplomatic relationships. Longtime alliances with traditional partners in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere have been under tremendous strain as a result of Trump’s tariffs, his uneven support for Ukraine, and his international aggression in many global hot spots. While neither Russia nor China has taken advantage of these opportunities for their own purposes, it’s an open question if these other countries will be quite so eager to answer America’s call when a future crisis requiring international cooperation emerges.

Trump and his advisors might be right. It is still entirely possible that the Iranian people will rise up and create a new democracy. The combination of US and Israeli military might could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and quickly restore the world’s oil supply. But short of such sweeping and overriding success, Putin will look back at this Mideast war with far more fondness than any of the chief combatants.