When Trump Gets Scared - 5/18/26

Donald Trump called Xi Jinping a “great leader” and said, “It's an honor to be your friend” last week during his visit to China. Xi told Trump that the US was a declining power. 

Before Trump arrived, Xi warned that Taiwan was a “red line in the sand” and that there would be “big consequences” if the United States crossed that line. By the time Trump left, he was no longer committed to the sale of US arms to Taiwan, which Congress had approved in January.

Upon returning home, Trump proclaimed the “fantastic trade deals” between the two countries. But Chinese officials would not confirm this, and it is becoming clear that only minimal agreements had been reached, far less than American business interests had anticipated. 

During the 2024 campaign, Trump warned that China wanted “to take over the world,” blamed the country for the spread of the COVID-19 virus, and referred to his opponent as “Beijing Biden” to suggest that his predecessor had been too accommodating to Chinese policy demands. And it was only last fall that the president was threatening an all-out trade war with China.

What caused the abrupt change? While Trump was threatening increased tariffs at unprecedented levels last year, China reminded the White House that the rare earth metals that are necessary for modern technology, clean energy advancements, and most American defense systems are largely controlled by China. When Trump promised an all-out trade war, China took steps to restrict exports of these metals and the associated technologies, leaving the US dangerously exposed to debilitating shortages in our defense, energy, and automotive industries. It took a face-to-face meeting between Trump and Xi to convince China to temporarily delay the cutoff by one year.

Last week marked the first time the two leaders had seen each other since that agreement last October, and it was clear that Trump understood the importance of demonstrating proper respect to his Chinese counterpart.  The words “rare earth metals” were barely uttered over the course of the two days, but they were omnipresent throughout the summit. Trump knows that he now needs Xi more than Xi needs him, and Xi knows that Trump knows that. 

Xi is also smart enough to understand that Trump needs to show off for his own domestic audience, but it was very clear that China had little interest in providing the American president with any substantive policy achievements during the summit. Xi has also learned how to flatter Trump and to distract him with pageantry and spectacle. The result was a wide-eyed American president marveling at the pomp and ceremony with which he was greeted, while devoting little time or public attention to Taiwan, trade or the Strait of Hormuz.

China has ignored American requests for assistance with Iran, preferring to let the US continue to struggle militarily, economically, and diplomatically. They offered little to the coalition of business leaders who accompanied Trump on the trip, laying the groundwork for more favorable trade deals later this year when they correctly calculate the White House’s need for positive economic news heading into the midterm elections. And they continue to assert their primacy over Taiwan and other contested areas in the Pacific, confident that the lack of reliability that Trump has displayed toward other longtime allies in Europe, the Americas, and elsewhere will ultimately cause him to tiptoe away from Taiwan too.

Xi has taken to citing an academic theory called the “Thucydides Trap,” which points to the historical inevitability of rising global powers first confronting and then overtaking established international interests. The Chinese leader is careful to discuss the theory in the context of avoiding unnecessary conflict, suggesting that an established power like the United States can prevent such a confrontation by respecting China’s interests. By linking these historical precedents to the current disagreement over Taiwan, Xi is working to establish the US as the belligerent actor on the world stage. His goal is clearly to argue that Trump’s resistance to a Chinese offensive against Taiwan would be the cause of global conflict rather than the takeover itself.

After Trump’s recent aggressive behavior in the Middle East, Latin America, and elsewhere, China’s leaders recognize that a world audience is more likely to believe this version of the two countries’ competing interests than ever before. Xi is focused on making his country the dominant force on the world stage. Trump is thinking about the November midterms. It’s entirely possible for both men to achieve their goals.