When Trump Fights Musk — And China Wins - 6/925

The most useful way to think about the Donald Trump-Elon Musk annulment that has preoccupied the political universe for the last week is to regard Musk as the 21st-century version of Marla Maples. (For those with short or selective memories, Maples was the aspiring model and singer who became the second Mrs. Trump back in the 1990s). Trump’s relationship with both ingenues became the stuff of intense gossip for a brief period of time. Both were soon cast aside when Trump realized that maintaining a relationship with them was not nearly as interesting to him as the pursuit.

And as he did back in the day with his romantic partners, Trump will continue to use the chatter surrounding the state of his relationship with Musk to distract attention from his more pressing problems. Back in the 20th century, his dalliances overshadowed the struggles of his business empire. Today, they steal the headlines from the growing number of political and policy difficulties with which his administration is confronting.

Domestic policy is proving to be no picnic for the Trump team, and Musk’s parting salvos will make it even harder to keep congressional Republicans in line to pass the president’s budget. But Trump’s challenges are even more daunting on the global stage. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza are getting worse, and his pledges to end both conflicts quickly are looking increasingly hollow. The negotiations over Iran’s nuclear capability seem to have hit a roadblock as well, and the trade wars triggered by his tariff declarations are not yielding the type of results that administration officials had predicted.

The least promising arena for Trump, though, is undoubtedly his relationship with China. Unfortunately for him—and for our country and for the world—this is by far the most important task he and his immediate successors will face in the short- or medium-term future. Not only is China presently the US’s most formidable economic, technological, and military competitor, but the future is even more unsettling. Both countries are determined to win the race to become the planet’s dominant force in the development and use of artificial intelligence. Whoever prevails in that seminal contest will be the most powerful nation on earth.

Trump’s recent skirmishes with Chinese President Xi Jinping over trade policy are merely the preliminaries in this larger battle, but things are not off to a promising start. After Trump’s call earlier this spring for a massive increase in tariffs imposed on imports from China, Xi kept his distance, refusing to follow the example of dozens of other countries that rushed to redo their own trade arrangements with the US. After playing hard-to-get, the Chinese leader instead began to play hardball, as it belatedly began to dawn on Trump’s advisors that the near-monopoly that China maintains on the rare earth minerals needed for semiconductors, automobiles, and military hardware would create severe hardship for American consumers, manufacturers, and their government.

In short order, Trump began to talk publicly about the importance of a direct conversation between himself and Xi. It was only when the Chinese began to detect a tinge of desperation in the American president’s call for a meeting that one was arranged. By the time it concluded, Trump, who weeks earlier had ordered a complete crackdown on the ability of Chinese college students to attend school in this country, was instead almost groveling to welcome them back.

“Chinese students are coming. No problem,” said the newly internationalist Trump. “It’s our honor to have them.”

In return, China made only a tiny amount of concessions on rare earth supplies after the two presidents talked, setting the stage for a heightened set of demands when Xi and Trump meet in person. It’s more than likely that Trump will be the one to cross the Pacific for that summit, the first of many concessions that Xi will attempt to extract from him.

But while the intricacies of international diplomacy rarely dominate American news coverage of the presidency, Trump’s breakup with Musk guaranteed that the China negotiations and other unflattering stories would be buried under the frenzy surrounding the two men’s fallout.

Will Elon and Donald reconcile? Probably, if for no other reason than how much both of them gain from their relationship. (Musk has already figured it out. Trump will take a bit longer.) But either way, as long as this is the dominant news story in Washington, Trump will benefit greatly from the distraction—and cover—it provides him.