When the Iran War Oozes Forward - 3/30/26

For a few weeks now, Donald Trump has faced two clear options in the war with Iran. He can either escalate or capitulate. He has instead chosen a third option: to equivocate.

When we discussed the war last week, it appeared that Trump was nearing a critically important fork in the road in terms of the US approach to the conflict. He could either follow through on his threats to dramatically expand American aerial attacks, promising to rain missile fire down on Iran’s oil and energy infrastructure unless that country’s military withdrew from the Strait of Hormuz. Such a course of action would have represented a marked expansion of his combat-related goals to date.

His alternative path was to back down from these warnings and negotiate an accelerated and discomfiting peace agreement, allowing the current regime to remain in place with its military capabilities and an ongoing ability to block the flow of the world’s oil and other necessary goods. While Trump’s team would have certainly marketed such a rapid cessation of the fighting as an important victory, in truth it would have been widely and correctly seen as an almost-complete capitulation.

But Trump opted for neither option. Instead, he has since delayed his decision—twice—citing meaningful progress in peace negotiations that the Iranians say have not occurred. As a result, speculation continues both in this country and around the world about whether Trump has the stomach to continue toward a sweeping military victory that would come at great cost to him.

Trump’s hesitation to take a stand reflects a deep equivocation on his part as to the domestic political ramifications of his decision. The president and his advisors understand that the war is deeply unpopular and that even his MAGA base seems unsure of the path forward. While polls show that the president’s most loyal supporters still strongly support his goals in the Middle East, the worried and awkward conversations that marked last weekend’s Conservative Political Action Conference suggest that their reservoir of goodwill and patience is not infinite. Talk show hosts Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, provocateur Steve Bannon, Trump’s former counterterrorism advisor Joe Kent, and Senator Rand Paul are only some of the voices who seem poised to create all sorts of havoc for J.D. Vance’s presidential campaign if this war does not end quickly.

So the temptation for Trump to declare victory and come home is understandable. But that would also require him to tacitly admit that his attacks on Iran achieved little tangible gain and that he caused enormous economic disruption and diplomatic upheaval (not to mention considerable loss of life, massive property destruction, and other outsized human costs) without accomplishing most of his original declared goals. Trump would never say anything like this out loud, of course, but his advisors recognize that such denials will not change the resulting political reality.