When the Gaza War is Slightly Closer to Ending - 10/13/25
As the remaining Israeli hostages are released, our reaction should be a loud and exuberant cheer for those brave individuals and their families.
If the Gaza War does finally come to an end after two long and horrible years, we should cheer again—just as loudly and just as enthusiastically.
But right now, three cheers might still be a bit premature. While last week’s diplomatic breakthroughs are extraordinarily positive news, and while the freedom finally to be enjoyed by the last few dozen captives held by Hamas is a justifiable cause for unrestrained celebration, the path to anything but temporary and tenuous peace is still a maddeningly lengthy and difficult one.
Donald Trump is receiving deserved credit for bullying both Israeli and Hamas leaders to the partial agreement they have finally achieved. But even the American president’s strong-arm tactics still only got the two sides some of the way to the ultimate objective. Let’s not minimize the immense importance of the terrorists releasing the final hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from much of Gaza. But let’s also remember how much more work is yet to be done.
Hamas has not agreed to disarm, let alone to vacate the Gaza territory. There has been little serious discussion about how the massive rebuilding of Gaza will be accomplished, let alone what sort of governance structure will oversee the territory after Hamas is gone. These are daunting and unanswered questions, and unless they are resolved sometime soon, the current ceasefire is destined to be an extremely short one.
Israel has been understandably opposed to an ineffectual, unpopular, and untrustworthy Palestinian Authority assuming control in Gaza, so the US, the Arab League, and other stakeholders have talked in extremely vague terms about some other type of Palestinian leadership that would oversee the rebuilding process. The fact that no plausible alternative exists has not discouraged such fanciful speculation from continuing to shape most discussions about Gaza’s future, but it has not brought the region any closer to a realistic strategy either.
The involvement of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair is cause for encouragement, as he possesses the knowledge, the experience, and the credibility to steer the process forward until some type of Pan-Arab coalition can prepare a new generation of Palestinian leaders. But each of those steps is fraught with peril, and the age-old animosities that have derailed every previous peace process could just as easily undermine this upcoming effort. Make no mistake: neither Benjamin Netanyahu nor the remaining Hamas leaders think the current deal is sufficient. Both were dragged here by impatient allies, and both may be counting on Trump’s short attention span to distract him and give them the breathing room they need to tiptoe away from future concessions.
That’s why Blair’s role is so important. He has the ear of Trump confidants Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff—and therefore of Trump himself—to weigh in forcefully to push the process forward when it stalls. Trump himself may be realistic enough to understand that he could not receive the Nobel Peace Prize given the timing of last week’s announcement. But if he can keep the broader peace process on track, if he can expand the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia and Qatar and others, if the de facto Arab coalition that has maintained unofficial relationships with Israel in recent years can exert the necessary influence on Hamas and the other traditional Palestinian stakeholders, it is entirely possible that this rickety ceasefire could lead to an unprecedented stability and peace in a region that has not known either for many centuries. Trump’s claim would then become more plausible.
Trump wants the Peace Prize. Netanyahu wants to go down in history as the Israeli leader who finally brought safety and security to the Jewish state. Blair wants redemption from his strong support for the Iraq War and his own place in history. The Saudis and other key Arab players want protection from Iran, international economic growth opportunities, and a future built on a broader foundation than the increasingly unreliable fossil fuel revenues that brought them to power. If enough Palestinians decide they want peace too, a longer-lasting agreement could conceivably take hold. It won’t be easy, and the odds are still against it. But for the first time in many, many years, the possibility for Middle East peace might actually exist, even if it is still a long way off.