When It’s Not Time For Predictions — 12/29/25
I stopped making predictions on November 8, 2016. It’s not because it’s a useless and shallow exercise. It’s because I am usually wrong.
As we approach the tenth anniversary of my spectacular failure to foresee Donald Trump’s first election, let me suggest that it’s more useful to instead recommend the ten news stories that we should watch most carefully in the upcoming year—without trying to guess how these matters resolve themselves. With that slightly more humble approach in mind, I offer the following topics as those that we should all be watching most closely in 2026… at least as the year begins.
10. The midterm elections will determine control of Congress. It’s a big story, but not as impactful as it seems. (That’s why it’s only tenth on this list.) If Democrats win even one chamber, they will begin aggressive oversight of Trump Administration conduct. But unless either party accomplishes the wildly improbable objective of winning a 60-seat Senate supermajority, continued gridlock will stymie almost all significant policy progress.
9. The war in Gaza is not over. It’s been almost three months since a Trump-forced ceasefire was signed and the hostages were freed, but the violence continues. It is still unclear who will be responsible for disarming Hamas, and there will be no meaningful rebuilding until that happens. Unhappily, this won’t be resolved anytime soon.
8. Young men are suffering. This crisis will not generate daily headlines, but as young men suffer from crises in education, professional achievement, mental health, and higher rates of violence, suicide, and overdose, the gender gap in Generation Z is laying the groundwork for long-term societal havoc. This might be the most important long-term challenge on this list.
7. War with Venezuela will have impact far beyond that country’s borders. The widespread assumption that Trump’s “America First” doctrine has represented a modern-day isolationism has been upended by increasingly assertive US claims on the Western Hemisphere. This could be the first step toward a spheres-of-influence strategy in which China, Russia, and this country divide the planet into geographic fiefdoms.
6. War in Ukraine will have impact far beyond that country’s borders. Trump wants to end the war and make money in Russia. Europe knows that Putin must be stopped, or he will soon attack elsewhere. US-Europe tensions are growing on tariffs, technology, and migration. Ukraine is the most visible symptom of broader discord.
5. The debate over immigration policy is societally wrenching but historically predictable. Whenever the percentage of the US population that was born in other countries rises above 12-13 percent, heightened debate over immigration policy has always followed. The current time is no exception, and the Trump Administration’s efforts to further restrict international migration will become even more intense.
4. “Affordability” is just the latest buzzword for talking about the economy. But the higher cost of housing, health care, energy, and groceries will continue to dominate the national conversation. Consumer confidence is dropping, but spending has remained high. What we don’t know is whether the wealthiest ten percent can continue to single-handedly carry the economy.
3. China is the greatest international challenge for the US—and the world. Trump could meet with Xi Jinping four times this year, and the ability of the two superpowers to address their differences on tariffs, technology, and Taiwan will have global ramifications. One big question: will Xi use the US blockade of Venezuela to justify similar action against Taiwan?
2. Technology is an umbrella for both artificial intelligence and social media. But both are fundamentally changing our economy, politics, and society. In the three years since ChatGPT went public, generative AI has had far more immediate impact than the first-generation Internet, but it has also caused much deeper backlash than any previous form of communications technology.
1. Our divisions are growing deeper and more damaging. We are not going to heal these divides in 2026, and partisans will disagree as to whether Trump himself is a symptom, a cause, or a beneficiary. But the increased polarization is poisoning our politics, and it is causing greater economic, social, and cultural distrust and hostility. We have to do better.
One or more of these topics could dominate our lives over the next twelve months, and it’s entirely possible that something that’s not on this list could emerge as an even more consequential challenge. But as we prepare for an extremely complicated and precarious 2026, these ten signposts can hopefully provide a reliable roadmap to guide us through.