When Erika Kirk And Joe Rogan Start a New Party - 9/29/25

Donald Trump is currently about 20 percent of the way through his current term in office, which seems like a bit early to discuss what the Republican Party will look like after he departs. But Democrats are already well into their 2028 planning, so thinking about how the GOP will define itself in a post-Trump era may still be useful.

It’s been clear for some time that traditional Republicans who dominated their party for the decades before Trump’s ascension will attempt a comeback. Traditional conservatives like Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Nikki Haley, after failing to defeat Trump in the last three elections, will attempt to regain control of the GOP once he could presumably no longer seek the presidency. But MAGA conservatives such as J.D. Vance, Ron DeSantis and Marjorie Taylor Greene clearly enjoy their current dominance and have no intention of giving their party back to the Bush-Romney Republicans who preceded them.

I have long assumed a battle for control of the Republican Party and the conservative movement that pits these two factions against each other: the winning cohort assumes control of the GOP moving forward and the losers either submit, dissolve, or form their own third party. But over the last couple of weeks, in the wake of the tragic death of Charlie Kirk, a new variable has emerged. Large numbers of Trump’s most committed supporters, who had long felt ignored by most conventional politicians, flocked to him in the belief that he would give them a voice in his movement. But while he has fought on their behalf against a political and economic establishment that they have long resented, Kirk’s death has reminded them that there are ways in which his priorities are not always the same as theirs.

Trump’s corel differences with his most deeply religious backers became apparent at Kirk’s memorial service, at which the slain leader’s widow Erika forgave the man accuses of killing her late husband. She drew deeply from her faith to offer that forgiveness and sent a powerful message of the power of mercy to her audience. One did not have to share the specifics of her religious beliefs to be impressed by her compassion.

When the president took the stage, he all but admitted that he was not capable of sharing her benevolence. In paying tribute to Charlie Kirk, Trump drew a stark contrast between the Kirks’ animating beliefs and his own. 

“He did not hate his opponents. He wanted the best for them,” Trump said. “That’s where I disagreed with Charlie. I hate my opponent. And I don’t want the best for them. I’m sorry.”

For almost ten years now, theologians and political scientists have debated the strength of Trump’s hold over religiously devout voters. They have discussed how many of them have prioritized his policy commitments, most notably his judicial appointments, ahead of his personal transgressions. But the contrast between his words and those of Erika Kirk reflected a deeper philosophical disagreement between Trump and people of faith. And while it is unlikely that many of those believers will abandon him as long as he continues to appoint pro-life judges and fight for restrictive transgender policy, it does raise the question of whether religious conservatives will automatically remain MAGA supporters in a post-Trump era.

Just as Charlie Kirk served as a valuable conduit between Trump and religious voters, Joe Rogan has long played a similar role with Trump’s more secular populist base. Both were instrumental in his success with disaffected young male voters in last year’s election, with complementary but extremely distinct messages. In the controversy over late-night talk show host Jimmy Kimmel’s suspension over his comments after Kirk’s death, Rogan conspicuously expressed his disapproval of the efforts by the Trump Administration to remove Kimmel from the air. While old-school conservatives like Cruz and Mitch McConnell voiced similar sentiments, Rogan’s ability to reach these young men is unmatched. This comes on the heels of the podcasters’ decisions to similarly distance himself from Trump earlier this year over immigration and deportation, trade policy and Jeffrey Epstein. 

While Rogan and his listeners are just as unlikely to separate from Trump as Kirk’s followers, his comments on these matters should be a cautionary note to those in MAGA nation who want to succeed the president in office. In the fight between pre-Trumpers and pro-Trumpers, it appears that some very important constituencies are still up for grabs.