When Both Parties Are Losing on Immigration - 4/28/25

Under any normal circumstances, a troika of polls timed for Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office would have been a cause for Democratic celebration. The Washington Post-ABC News, New York Times/Sienna College and Associated Press-NORC surveys all show that the president’s approval ratings are at historic laws, and he has lost notable support from women, Hispanic Americans, young people, high school graduates, and independent voters since taking office. 

Even Americans’ opinions of his economic credentials, historically Trump’s greatest strength, have for the first time dropped below his overall favorability. Voters do not view him as understanding the problems in their daily lives, and they view his efforts on inflation, trade, and tariffs with immense skepticism. They are more than twice as likely to say his policies have hurt them as they are to say his policies have helped them. That is a reversal from last fall, when many voters across demographic groups said his policies during his first term had helped them.

But with the exception of Trump’s basement-dwelling poll numbers, there is little in these surveys to improve the mood of his beleaguered opposition. Despite their deep concerns about Trump, more adults believe the country is headed in the right direction than during Biden’s final week in office two months ago. Even more distressing for Democrats is that Americans trust Trump over congressional Democrats when it comes to dealing with the country’s major problems and see the Democratic Party as somewhat more out of touch “with the concerns of most people’ than either the president or the Republican Party”.

The “we hate everybody” mood among the electorate may be sufficient to elect a Democratic House majority next year, but the party’s divisions still reflect an extremely difficult landscape that their leaders will have to resolve before the next presidential election. Nowhere is this challenge greater than in the debate over undocumented immigration, the only major policy area where Trump’s support has not dropped dramatically.

History tells us that public sentiment in this country has turned against migrants and in favor of more stringent restrictions on admitting those from other countries when the percentage of the population that is foreign born rises above 11 or 12 percent. In January of this year, 15.8 percent of US residents were born in other countries, according to joint research by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau. The previous high was 14.8 percent in 1890.  (Which not coincidentally, was another time in which anti-immigrant feelings were unusually high).

Along with inflation, this issue was arguably the key to Trump’s election last fall. But voters are now much more equivocal about his approach. Even while more than half of the electorate supports the deportation of unauthorized immigrants back to their home countries, Americans oppose Trump’s handling of the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the migrant who was mistakenly deported to El Salvador, by double-digit margins.

But even with public opinion on their side of the Abrego Garcia debate, Democrats continue to flail, arguing amongst themselves about whether this is an issue for them to be highlighting.

“This is the distraction of the day,” California Governor Gavin Newsom said when asked about the case. “This is the debate they want.” He added that Democrats look like they are “defending MS-13” and “someone who’s out of sight, out of mind in El Salvador.”

Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen, who traveled to El Salvador to meet with Abrego Garcia, responded forcefully. “I don’t think it’s ever wrong to protect the Constitution and protect due process rights. I think what Americans are tired of is people who want to put their finger to the wind to see what’s going on. And I would say that anyone that’s not prepared to defend the constitutional rights of one man when they threaten the constitutional rights of all doesn’t deserve to lead.”

This disagreement is characteristic of the quarrels that the Democrats will confront throughout the Trump presidency and through the 2028 election. Opposing an unpopular president will help them in the short run. But ultimately, it’s not nearly enough to win back a skeptical public. Trump is down. But the Democrats are still a long way from being back.